Behavioral Investment Strategy Matters: A Statistical Arbitrage Approach

Posted: 12 Mar 2012 Last revised: 3 Dec 2013

See all articles by David S. Sun

David S. Sun

Kainan University

Shih-Chuan Tsai

National Taiwan Normal University

Wei Wang

Jhe Jiang University - School of Economics

Date Written: January 16, 2012

Abstract

In this study, we employ a statistical arbitrage approach to demonstrate that momentum investment strategy tend to work better in periods longer than six months, a result different from findings in past literature. Compared with standard parametric tests, the statistical arbitrage method produces more clearly that momentum strategies work only in longer formation and holding periods. Also they yield positive significant returns in an up market, but negative yet insignificant returns in a down market. Disposition and over-confidence effects are important factors contributing to the phenomenon. The over-confidence effect seems to dominate the disposition effect, especially in an up market. Moreover, the over-confidence investment behavior of institutional investors is the main cause for significant momentum returns observed in an up market. In a down market, the institutional investors tend to adopt a contrarian strategy while the individuals are still maintaining momentum behavior within shorter periods. The behavior difference between investor groups explains in part why momentum strategies work differently between up and down market states. Robustness tests confirm that the momentum returns do not come from firm size, overlapping execution periods, market states definition or market frictions.

Keywords: Momentum Strategy, Statistical Arbitrage, Market State, Disposition Effect

JEL Classification: C14, D82, D83, G12, L11

Suggested Citation

Sun, David S. and Tsai, Shih-Chuan and Wang, Wei, Behavioral Investment Strategy Matters: A Statistical Arbitrage Approach (January 16, 2012). Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 49, No. Supp. 3, 2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2019543 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2019543

David S. Sun (Contact Author)

Kainan University ( email )

No. 1, Kāinán Rd
Taoyuan, Taiwan
Taiwan

Shih-Chuan Tsai

National Taiwan Normal University ( email )

No. 162, Section 1
Heping East Road
Taipei City, Da’an District 106
Taiwan

Wei Wang

Jhe Jiang University - School of Economics

Hang Zhou, Jhe Jiang
China

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