Macro Variables and the Components of Stock Returns

Abstract

We conduct a decomposition for the stock market return by incorporating the information from 124 macro variables. Using factor analysis, we estimate six common factors and run a VAR containing these factors and financial variables such as the market dividend yield and the T-bill rate. Including the macro factors does not have a significant impact in the estimation of the components of aggregate (excess) stock returns --- cash-flow, discount-rate, and interest-rate news. Using the macro factors in the computation of cash-flow and discount-rate news does not significantly improve the fit of a two-factor ICAPM for the cross-section of stock returns.

Keywords: asset pricing, macroeconomy and stock returns, return decomposition, stock return predictability, discount-rate news, cash-flow news, Intertemporal CAPM, cross-section of stock returns, factor analysis

JEL Classification: E44, G10, G12, G17