Global Crises and Equity Market Contagion
55 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2012
Date Written: February 15, 2012
Using the 2007-09 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings as indicative of contagion. We find systematic evidence of contagion from US markets and from the global financial sector, but the effects are very small. By contrast, there has been substantial contagion from domestic equity markets to individual domestic equity portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the quality of countries’ economic fundamentals and policies. Consequently, we reject the globalization hypothesis that links the transmission of the crisis to the extent of global exposure. Instead, we confirm the old “wake-up call” hypothesis, with markets and investors focusing substantially more on idiosyncratic, country-specific characteristics during the crisis.
Keywords: contagion, financial crisis, equity markets, global transmission, market integration, country risk, factor model, financial policies, FX reserves, current account
JEL Classification: F3, G14, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation