Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications

45 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2012 Last revised: 19 Sep 2015

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michael Johannes

Columbia University

Lars A. Lochstoer

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 18, 2015

Abstract

Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models with unknown parameters governing either long-run economic growth, rare events, or model selection. Overall, parameter learning generates long-lasting, quantitatively significant additional macro risks that help explain standard asset pricing puzzles.

Keywords: Parameter learning, asset pricing, general equilibrium

JEL Classification: G12

Suggested Citation

Collin-Dufresne, Pierre and Johannes, Michael and Lochstoer, Lars A., Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications (September 18, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2024130 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2024130

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne ( email )

Quartier UNIL-Dorigny, Bâtiment Extranef, # 211
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1015 Lausanne, CH-6900
Switzerland

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Michael Johannes

Columbia University ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

Lars A. Lochstoer (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management ( email )

110 Westwood Plaza
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States

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