Hedge Fund Return Predictability Under the Magnifying Glass
Posted: 26 Mar 2012
Date Written: March 25, 2012
This paper develops a unified approach to comprehensively analyse individual hedge fund return predictability, both in- and out-of-sample. In-sample, we find that variation in hedge fund performance across changing market conditions is widespread and economically significant. The predictability pattern is consistent with economic rationale, and largely reflects differences in key hedge fund characteristics, such as leverage or capacity constraints. Out-of-sample, we show that a simple strategy that combines the funds' return forecasts obtained from individual predictors delivers superior performance. We exploit this simplicity to highlight the drivers of this performance, and find that in- and out-of-sample predictability are closely related.
Keywords: Hedge Fund Performance, Return Predictability, Combination Forecasts
JEL Classification: G11, G23, C12
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