Does Data Vintage Matter for Forecasting?

Working Paper No. 99-15

47 Pages Posted: 29 Feb 2000

See all articles by Dean Croushore

Dean Croushore

University of Richmond - E. Claiborne Robins School of Business

Tom Stark

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Date Written: October 1999

Abstract

This paper illustrates the use of a real-time data set for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of the major macroeconomic data available at quarterly intervals in real time. The paper explains the construction of the data set, examines the properties of several of the variables in the data set across vintages, and shows how forecasts can be affected by data revisions.

JEL Classification: C28, E37

Suggested Citation

Croushore, Dean and Stark, Tom, Does Data Vintage Matter for Forecasting? (October 1999). Working Paper No. 99-15, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=203029 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.203029

Dean Croushore (Contact Author)

University of Richmond - E. Claiborne Robins School of Business ( email )

102 UR Drive
University of Richmond, VA 23173
United States
804-287-1961 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://facultystaff.richmond.edu/~dcrousho/

Tom Stark

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ( email )

Ten Independence Mall
Research Department
Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574
United States
215-574-6436 (Phone)
215-574-4364 (Fax)