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A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-Candidate Countries

27 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2012  

Hubert Gabrisch

Wiesbaden Institute for Law and Economics

Lucjan T. Orlowski

Sacred Heart University - John F. Welch College of Business

Date Written: March 30, 2012

Abstract

We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001 until January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a ‘static’ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the euro-candidate countries.

Keywords: interest rate convergence, common currency area, new EU Member States, interest rate risk, GARCH

JEL Classification: E44, F36

Suggested Citation

Gabrisch, Hubert and Orlowski, Lucjan T., A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-Candidate Countries (March 30, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2031473 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2031473

Hubert Gabrisch (Contact Author)

Wiesbaden Institute for Law and Economics ( email )

Friedrich-Kruse-Str. 10
D-06120 Halle, 06120
Germany

Lucjan T. Orlowski

Sacred Heart University - John F. Welch College of Business ( email )

5151 Park Avenue
Fairfield, CT 06825
United States
203-371-7858 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.sacredheart.edu/ltorlowski.cfm

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