Who Suffers During Recessions?

41 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2012

See all articles by Hilary Williamson Hoynes

Hilary Williamson Hoynes

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Douglas L. Miller

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics

Jessamyn Schaller

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance

Date Written: March 2012

Abstract

In this paper we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across US states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

Suggested Citation

Hoynes, Hilary Williamson and Miller, Douglas L. and Schaller, Jessamyn, Who Suffers During Recessions? (March 2012). NBER Working Paper No. w17951, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2031959

Hilary Williamson Hoynes (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Douglas L. Miller

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
530-752-8490 (Phone)

Jessamyn Schaller

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance ( email )

500 E. Ninth St.
Claremont, CA 91711-6420
United States

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