Predictability and Specification in Models of Exchange Rate Determination

CAUSALITY, PREDICTION, AND SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS: RECENT ADVANCES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF HALBERT L. WHITE JR., Norman Rasmus Swanson and Chen Xiaohong, eds., Springer, June 2012

38 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2012 Last revised: 4 Sep 2012

Levent Bulut

Ipek University - Department of Economics; Ipek University

Esfandiar Maasoumi

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Department of Economics

Date Written: January 17, 2012

Abstract

We examine a class of popular structural models of exchange rate determination and compare them to a random walk with and without drift. Given almost any set of conditioning variables, we find parametric specifications fail. Our findings are based on broad entropy functional of the whole distribution of variables and forecasts. We also find significant evidence of nonlinearity and/or higher moment influences which seriously questions the habit of forecast and model evaluation based on mean-variance criteria. Taylor rule factors may improve out of sample forecasts for some models and exchanges, but do not offer similar improvement for in-sample (historical) fit. We estimate models of exchange rate determination nonparametrically so as to avoid functional form issues. Taylor rule and some other variables are smoothed out, being statistically irrelevant in sample. The metric entropy tests suggest significant differences between the observed densities and their in- and out- of sample forecasts and fitted values. Much like the Diebold-Mariano approach, we are able to report statistical significance of the differences with our more general measures of forecast performance.

Keywords: Model Evaluation, Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle, Entropy, Out-of-sample Forecasting

JEL Classification: F31, C14, C53

Suggested Citation

Bulut, Levent and Maasoumi, Esfandiar, Predictability and Specification in Models of Exchange Rate Determination (January 17, 2012). CAUSALITY, PREDICTION, AND SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS: RECENT ADVANCES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF HALBERT L. WHITE JR., Norman Rasmus Swanson and Chen Xiaohong, eds., Springer, June 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2034059

Levent Bulut (Contact Author)

Ipek University - Department of Economics ( email )

Ipek University
Turan Gunes Bulvari
Ankara, 06550
Turkey

Ipek University ( email )

Turan Güneş Blv
Ankara, 06550
Turkey

Esfandiar (Essie) Maasoumi

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Department of Economics ( email )

Dallas, TX 75275
United States
(214) 768-4298 (Phone)
(214) 768-1821 (Fax)

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