29 Pages Posted: 10 Apr 2012 Last revised: 25 Apr 2012
Date Written: April 10, 2012
Decision making often consists of incremental moves toward some selected objective, which can be reconsidered as knowledge emerges - as when an individual chooses a career, or a commander picks a military course of action. Analyzing these decision strategy options as if they were single integral commitments can distort comparison. However, rigorous normative treatment of complex act-event sequences is often impractical.
Alternative analytic aids to managing incremental commitment usefully are explored, e.g; evaluation of integral options adjusted for flexibility, successive decision analyses of incremental options, simplified information gathering decision trees, feedback to decider on evolving operation success, rehearsing deciders on potential recognition-primed sequences.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Brown, Rex, Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge (April 10, 2012). GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2012-11. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2037695 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2037695