Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge
George Mason University - School of Public Policy
April 10, 2012
GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2012-11
Decision making often consists of incremental moves toward some selected objective, which can be reconsidered as knowledge emerges - as when an individual chooses a career, or a commander picks a military course of action. Analyzing these decision strategy options as if they were single integral commitments can distort comparison. However, rigorous normative treatment of complex act-event sequences is often impractical.
Alternative analytic aids to managing incremental commitment usefully are explored, e.g; evaluation of integral options adjusted for flexibility, successive decision analyses of incremental options, simplified information gathering decision trees, feedback to decider on evolving operation success, rehearsing deciders on potential recognition-primed sequences.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 29
Date posted: April 10, 2012 ; Last revised: April 25, 2012