Ruin by Dynamic Contagion Claims
35 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2012
Date Written: August 22, 2011
Abstract
In this paper, we consider a risk process with the arrival of claims modelled by a dynamic contagion process, a generalisation of the Cox process and Hawkes process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). We derive results for the infinite horizon model that are generalisations of the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, Lundberg’s fundamental equation, some asymptotics as well as bounds for the probability of ruin. Special attention is given to the case of exponential jumps and a numerical example is provided.
Keywords: Dynamic contagion process, Ruin probability, Generalised Lundberg’s fundamental
JEL Classification: C10
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