Trading Activity and Expected Stock Returns

Abstract

Given the evidence that the level of liquidity affects asset returns, a reasonable hypothesis is that the second moment of liquidity should be positively related to asset returns, provided agents care about the risk associated with fluctuations in liquidity. Motivated by this observation, we analyze the relation between expected equity returns and the level as well as the volatility of trading activity (a proxy for liquidity). We document a result contrary to our initial hypothesis, namely, a negative and surprisingly strong cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and the variability of dollar trading volume and share turnover, after controlling for size, book-to-market, momentum, and the level of dollar volume or share turnover. This effect survives a number of robustness checks and is statistically and economically significant. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of trading activity-related variables in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

JEL Classification: G12, G14