The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors

27 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2012 Last revised: 15 Apr 2016

See all articles by Christoph Engel

Christoph Engel

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods; University of Bonn - Faculty of Law & Economics; Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR), Erasmus School of Law, Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics, Students; Universität Osnabrück - Faculty of Law

Hanjo Hamann

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods

Date Written: April 1, 2012

Abstract

The market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: in the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is significantly negatively correlated with the number of market entries 8 years ago. This is quite precisely the time young scholars on average take to prepare for the market. To get this estimate, we detrend the data, and we control for the size of student cohorts when these candidates enter university. This control variable mediates the effect of birth cohorts when candidates are born, which themselves exhibit negative autocorrelation, with a lag of some 20 years. Using our statistical model, we make out of sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.

Keywords: market for law professors, hog-cycle, time series, out of sample prediction

JEL Classification: K23, K00, D84, D92, J22, D22, C22, J45

Suggested Citation

Engel, Christoph and Hamann, Hanjo, The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors (April 1, 2012). MPI Collective Goods Preprint, 2012/8. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2046484 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2046484

Christoph Engel (Contact Author)

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ( email )

Kurt-Schumacher-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, 53113
Germany
+049 228 914160 (Phone)
+049 228 9141655 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.coll.mpg.de/engel.html

University of Bonn - Faculty of Law & Economics

Postfach 2220
D-53012 Bonn
Germany

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR), Erasmus School of Law, Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics, Students ( email )

Burgemeester Oudlaan 50
PO Box 1738
Rotterdam
Netherlands

Universität Osnabrück - Faculty of Law

Osnabruck, D-49069
Germany

Hanjo Hamann

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ( email )

Kurt-Schumacher-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, 53113
Germany

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