Informational Differences in NFL Point Spread and Moneyline Markets

16 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2012

See all articles by Andy Fodor

Andy Fodor

Ohio University

Kevin Krieger

University of West Florida

David Kirch

Ohio University - School of Accountancy

Andrew Kreutzer

Ohio University

Date Written: April, 27 2012

Abstract

In this paper we test the efficiency of NFL betting markets by examining the ability of NFL point spread and moneyline markets to incorporate information. While bookmakers may properly evaluate available information when setting point spreads and moneylines, we show that the nature of point spread markets makes full information incorporation difficult. We test if information from the finer moneyline market can be used to predict whether favorites will cover the spread in the point spread market. We find that for games with the same point spread, betting on (against) the most (least) favored teams to win (lose), according to the moneyline, results in chances to profit, suggesting an inefficiency in the point spread market.

Keywords: Market Efficiency, NFL, Sports Betting, Information Incorporation, Information Flow, Point Spread, Moneyline

JEL Classification: D82, G12, L8, D81

Suggested Citation

Fodor, Andy and Krieger, Kevin and Kirch, David and Kreutzer, Andrew, Informational Differences in NFL Point Spread and Moneyline Markets (April, 27 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2047243 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2047243

Andy Fodor (Contact Author)

Ohio University ( email )

514 Copeland Hall
Athens, OH 45701
United States
740.593.0259 (Phone)

Kevin Krieger

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

David Kirch

Ohio University - School of Accountancy ( email )

College of Business Administration
526 Copeland Hall
Athens, OH 45701
United States

Andrew Kreutzer

Ohio University ( email )

Athens, OH 45701-2979
United States
740-593-9495 (Phone)

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