Exploring the Production of Natural Gas Using ACEGES
24 Pages Posted: 21 May 2012
Date Written: December 20, 2011
Due to the increasing importance of natural gas to modern economic activity, and gas’s non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Given the estimated EUR, the ’Collective View’ and ’Golden Age’ scenarios suggest that the peaks of median global production of natural gas may happen in the broad vicinity between 2045 and 2052 while the asymmetrically weighted upper frontier might peak between 2050 and 2065.
Keywords: natural gas production, natural gas scenario generation, ACEGES, GAMLSS, expectile smoothing
JEL Classification: Q41
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