Exploring the Production of Natural Gas Using ACEGES

24 Pages Posted: 21 May 2012

See all articles by Vlasios Voudouris

Vlasios Voudouris

ABM Analytics Ltd

Ken'ichi Matsumoto

Nagasaki University

Robert Rigby

London Metropolitan University

Dimitrios Stasinopoulos

London Metropolitan University

Date Written: December 20, 2011

Abstract

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas to modern economic activity, and gas’s non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Given the estimated EUR, the ’Collective View’ and ’Golden Age’ scenarios suggest that the peaks of median global production of natural gas may happen in the broad vicinity between 2045 and 2052 while the asymmetrically weighted upper frontier might peak between 2050 and 2065.

Keywords: natural gas production, natural gas scenario generation, ACEGES, GAMLSS, expectile smoothing

JEL Classification: Q41

Suggested Citation

Voudouris, Vlasios and Matsumoto, Ken'ichi and Rigby, Robert and Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios, Exploring the Production of Natural Gas Using ACEGES (December 20, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2063264 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2063264

Vlasios Voudouris (Contact Author)

ABM Analytics Ltd ( email )

Suite 17 125
145-157 St John Street
London, EC1V 4PW
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.abm-analytics.com/people.php

Ken'ichi Matsumoto

Nagasaki University ( email )

1-14
Bunkyo-machi
Nagasaki, 8528521
Japan
+81(0)958192735 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.matsumoto-lab.net/

Robert Rigby

London Metropolitan University ( email )

166-220 Holloway Road
London EC3N 2EY, N7 8HN
United Kingdom

Dimitrios Stasinopoulos

London Metropolitan University ( email )

166-220 Holloway Road
London EC3N 2EY, N7 8HN
United Kingdom

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