Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach

Abstract

International equity markets are characterized by nonlinear dependence and asymmetries. We propose a new dynamic asymmetric copula model to capture long-run and short-run dependence, multivariate nonnormality, and asymmetries in large cross-sections. We find that copula correlations have increased markedly in both developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), but they are much lower for EMs than for DMs. Tail dependence has also increased but its level is still relatively low for EMs. We propose new measures of dynamic diversification benefits that take into account higher order moments and nonlinear dependence. The benefits from international diversification have reduced over time, drastically so for DMs. EMs still offer significant diversification benefits, especially during large market downturns.

Keywords: Asset allocation, dynamic dependence, dynamic copula, asymmetric dependence

JEL Classification: G12