Does Misinformation Demobilize the Electorate? Measuring the Impact of Alleged 'Robocalls' in the 2011 Canadian Election

33 Pages Posted: 25 May 2012

See all articles by Tom Cornwall

Tom Cornwall

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Anke S. Kessler

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics; University of Bonn - Economic Science Area; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: April 2012

Abstract

The paper presents evidence on the effect of voter demobilization in the context of the Canadian 2011 federal election. Voters in 27 ridings (as of February 26, 2012) allegedly received automated phone calls (`robocalls') that either contained misleading information about the location of their polling station, or were harassing in nature, claiming to originate from a particular candidate in the contest for local Member of Parliament. We use within-riding variation in turnout and vote--share for each party to study how turnout changed from the 2008 to the 2011 election as a function of the predominant party affiliation of voters at a particular polling station. We show that those polling stations with predominantly non-conservative voters experienced a decline in voter turnout from 2008 to 2011, and that this effect was larger in ridings that were allegedly targeted by the fraudulent phone calls. The results thus indicate a statistically significant effect of the alleged demobilization efforts: in those ridings where allegations of robocalls emerged, turnout was an estimated 3 percentage points lower on average. This reduction in turnout translates into roughly 2,500 eligible (registered) voters that did not go to the polls. The 95%-confidence interval gives a lower bound estimate of 1,000 fewer votes cast in robocall ridings, which is still a sizable effect.

Keywords: Canadian Election 2011, Vote Suppression, Voter Demobilization, Voter Turnout

JEL Classification: D72

Suggested Citation

Cornwall, Tom and Kessler, Anke S., Does Misinformation Demobilize the Electorate? Measuring the Impact of Alleged 'Robocalls' in the 2011 Canadian Election (April 2012). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8945. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2066318

Tom Cornwall (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Anke S. Kessler

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics ( email )

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6
Canada
604-291-3443 (Phone)
604-291-5944 (Fax)

University of Bonn - Economic Science Area ( email )

Adenauerallee 24-42
D-53113 Bonn
Germany
+49 228 739 246 (Phone)
+49 228 739 221 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wipol.uni-bonn.de/~kessler/

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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