Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation: A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability
48 Pages Posted: 25 May 2012
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Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation: A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability
Date Written: May 2012
Abstract
This paper argues that a stable broad money demand for the euro area over the period 1980-2011 can be obtained by modelling cross border international portfolio allocation. As a consequence, model-based excess liquidity measures, namely the difference between actual M3 growth (net of the inflation objective) and the expected money demand trend dynamics, can be useful to predict HICP inflation.
Keywords: Euro area money demand, inflation forecasts, monetary policy, portfolio allocation
JEL Classification: E4, E44
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Roberto A. De Santis (Contact Author)
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics ( email )
Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
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