25 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 1997
Date Written: January 1997
We develop a simple error-correction model, based on a well known theory espoused by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, and others, which presumes stock returns tend to restore an equilibrium relationship between the forecasted earnings yield on common stocks and the yield on bonds. The estimation uses I/B/E/S analysts forecasts of S&P earnings. To evaluate the model, we use rolling regressions to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of excess returns. Tests of association show the implicit timing signals to be statistically significant. Further, a strategy of investing in cash when the excess return is forecasted to be negative and in the S&P otherwise outperforms the S&P, yielding higher returns with smaller volatility. Using the bootstrap methodology we demonstrate that the findings are statistically significant.
JEL Classification: G11, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Orphanides, Athanasios and Lander, Joel and Douvogiannis, Martha, Earnings Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns:Evidence from Trading the S&P (January 1997). FEDS Discussion Paper No. 97-6. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2075 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2075
By Pu Shen