Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price-Dividend Ratio

74 Pages Posted: 5 Jun 2012 Last revised: 22 Apr 2014

Ilaria Piatti

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Fabio Trojani

University of Geneva; Swiss Finance Institute

Date Written: April 21, 2014

Abstract

Conventional tests of present-value models over-reject the null of no predictability. In order to better account for the intrinsic probability of detecting predictive relations by chance alone, we develop a new nonparametric Monte Carlo testing method, which does not rely on distributional assumptions to aggregate the information from the time series of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth. We find evidence of return predictability, but no apparent evidence of dividend growth predictability in postwar US data, thus reconciling the diverging conclusions in the literature. Our findings are robust to the specification of the predictive information set, the choice of the sample period and the use of different cash-flow proxies.

Keywords: Predictability, Predictive regression, Present-value model, State-space model, Bootstrap, Likelihood ratio test

JEL Classification: C12, C14, C22, G12

Suggested Citation

Piatti, Ilaria and Trojani, Fabio, Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price-Dividend Ratio (April 21, 2014). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 12-42. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2077381 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2077381

Ilaria Piatti (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

Fabio Trojani

University of Geneva ( email )

Geneva
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute ( email )

c/o University of Geneve
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
1211 Geneva, CH-6900
Switzerland

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