Turkey's per Capita Income Conversion to Southern European Countries

37 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2012

See all articles by Nake M. Kamrany

Nake M. Kamrany

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Georgi Dimitrov Vassilev

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Yusuf Ertas

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Andreas Mueller

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Date Written: June 13, 2012

Abstract

In this paper we have estimated the number of years for Turkey’s per capita income to converge with those of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. The estimate is based upon convergence theory of per capita income of laggard countries to that of advanced countries if (1) there exists a gap between the countries’ initial level of per capita income with the laggard country having the lower per capita income, (2) there exists a per capita productivity growth rate differential in favor of the laggard country and (3) sufficient time horizon considered to effectuate the convergence. In this instance all three conditions are met and assumed. According to our calculations, Turkey’s per capita income will converge with Portugal in 33 years, Greece in 39 years, Italy in 46 years and Spain in 62 Years, all within the 21st century time horizon. In addition the empirical and theoretical basis for conversion of per capita income is elucidated and verified. Using a wide cross section of countries we find evidence of unconditional income convergence looking at both the mean as well as at the entire income distribution via ordinary least squares and quintile regression respectively. We also analyzed the presence of an S-shaped growth curve for explaining the observed rapid progression of convergence and its impact on the expected future global income distribution.

Suggested Citation

Kamrany, Nake M. and Vassilev, Georgi Dimitrov and Ertas, Yusuf and Mueller, Andreas, Turkey's per Capita Income Conversion to Southern European Countries (June 13, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2083826 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2083826

Nake M. Kamrany (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Georgi Dimitrov Vassilev

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Yusuf Ertas

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Andreas Mueller

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
52
Abstract Views
1,374
rank
542,284
PlumX Metrics