Explaining Sprawl with an Agent-Based Model of Exurban Land and Housing Markets

Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 11-33

34 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2012

See all articles by Nicholas Magliocca

Nicholas Magliocca

National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center

Virginia McConnell

University of Maryland; Resources for the Future

Margaret Walls

Resources for the Future - Quality of the Environment Division

Elena Safirova

Resources for the Future

Date Written: June 12, 2012

Abstract

This paper develops a model of land use in a growing community on the urban fringe and uses it to explore the spatial patterns and time path of development. The model is an agent-based model (ABM) of housing and land markets that includes as agents farmer/landowners, a developer who buys land and builds houses, and consumers who purchase housing. Housing is characterized by lot size and house size. As in all ABMs, macro-scale patterns emerge from many micro-scale interactions between individual agents, which are modeled computationally. In contrast to many other ABMs, however, the fundamentals of microeconomic decisionmaking are built into the model — consumers choose houses to maximize utility; farmers compare returns from agriculture to the expected value of their land in development; and developers purchase land and build houses so as to maximize profits. Model simulations reveal some aspects of sprawl such as “leapfrog” development, yet also confirm some results from traditional urban economic models, such as declining density and rent (land price) gradients. Sensitivity analyses on the utility function parameters, the distribution of agricultural productivity, and the travel costs highlight the importance of the economic features of the model.

Keywords: housing density, farmland, development, urban fringe, computational methods

JEL Classification: C63, R14, R31, R21, Q24, C63

Suggested Citation

Magliocca, Nicholas and McConnell, Virginia and Walls, Margaret and Safirova, Elena, Explaining Sprawl with an Agent-Based Model of Exurban Land and Housing Markets (June 12, 2012). Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 11-33, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2086735 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2086735

Nicholas Magliocca

National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center ( email )

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States
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4109199149 (Fax)

Virginia McConnell

University of Maryland ( email )

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States

Resources for the Future

1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Margaret Walls (Contact Author)

Resources for the Future - Quality of the Environment Division ( email )

1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Elena Safirova

Resources for the Future ( email )

1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

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