The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 Forthcoming

Stanford Asia Health Policy Program Working Paper No. 29

63 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2012

See all articles by Karen Eggleston

Karen Eggleston

Stanford University - Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC)

Victor R. Fuchs

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 11, 2012

Abstract

The share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century for the US and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development; but that share was close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century, and is almost certainly approaching 100 percent asymptotically. This new demographic transition portends a diminished survival effect on working life. For high-income countries at the forefront of the longevity transition, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is declining. Innovative policies are needed if societies wish to preserve a positive relationship running from increasing longevity to greater prosperity.

Suggested Citation

Eggleston, Karen and Fuchs, Victor R., The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life (June 11, 2012). Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 Forthcoming; Stanford Asia Health Policy Program Working Paper No. 29. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2086940

Karen Eggleston (Contact Author)

Stanford University - Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Victor R. Fuchs

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
137
Abstract Views
650
rank
210,349
PlumX Metrics