The Consequences of a Human Food Pathogen Vaccine on Food Demand: A Calibrated Partial‐Equilibrium Analysis of the U.S. Beef Market

19 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2012

See all articles by Stéphan Marette

Stéphan Marette

National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) - ESR

Brian E. Roe

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics

Mario F. Teisl

University of Maine - Department of Resource Economics and Policy

Date Written: July 2012

Abstract

Human vaccines against several common foodborne pathogens are being developed and could substantially alter consumer and producer behaviour in the markets for foods commonly afflicted by these pathogens. To understand the possible impacts of such an innovation, we derive and calibrate a partial‐equilibrium model using parameters for consumer vaccine uptake from stated‐preference work under an array of assumptions concerning industry moral hazard, consumer awareness and alternative preventive effort exercised by consumers. We simulate three scenarios in the U.S. beef sector: the introduction of a vaccine, the tightening of pathogen standards for beef production and the simultaneous introduction of both vaccinations and tighter standards. Our simulation shows that all policies can increase aggregate surplus given most calibrations; though, the largest effects are attributed to vaccine introductions, which reduce expected damages from foodborne illness among vaccinated consumers without shifting firm costs. However, unaware consumers and aware consumers who choose not to vaccinate experience no change in expected damages when a vaccine is introduced but face a higher price of food because of the stronger demand of food from vaccinated consumers.

Keywords: beef, cost of ignorance, food safety, partial equilibrium, vaccination

Suggested Citation

Marette, Stéphan and Roe, Brian E. and Teisl, Mario F., The Consequences of a Human Food Pathogen Vaccine on Food Demand: A Calibrated Partial‐Equilibrium Analysis of the U.S. Beef Market (July 2012). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 56, Issue 3, pp. 366-384, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2089225 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2012.00584.x

Stéphan Marette

National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) - ESR ( email )

Univeriste des Sciences Sociales
21, Allee de Brienne
Toulouse 31000
France

Brian E. Roe

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics ( email )

2120 Fyffe Rd
Columbus, OH 43210-1067
United States
614-688-5777 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www-agecon.ag.ohio-state.edu/people/display.cfm?User_ID=roe30

Mario F. Teisl

University of Maine - Department of Resource Economics and Policy ( email )

200 Winslow Hall
Orno, ME 04469-5782
United States
207-581-3162 (Phone)
207-581-4278 (Fax)

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