A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008

Motu Working Paper No. 12-07

25 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2012

See all articles by Alex Olssen

Alex Olssen

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Wei Zhang

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

David Evison

University of Canterbury

Suzi Kerr

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Date Written: June 26, 2012

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a dataset of annual expected forest profits in New Zealand from 1990-2008 at a fine spatial resolution. We do not include land values in any of our profit calculations. We estimate four measures of expected forest profits based around net present value (NPV), land expectation value (LEV), equal annual equivalent (EAE), and internal rate of return (IRR). Our estimates of expected profits are based on the assumption that land owners form their expectations adaptively; that is, they use recent data on prices and costs to form expectations. We illustrate our data by showing regional variation in each of our measures, changes over time in NPV on land in forest in 2008, and variation in NPV over space in 2008. The final dataset, working datasets, and the code used in this work are publicly available to the research community and can be accessed from the authors’ website.

Keywords: Forestry, expected profits, expected investment returns, New Zealand, dataset

JEL Classification: Q5, Q15, Q23, Q24

Suggested Citation

Olssen, Alex and Zhang, Wei and Evison, David and Kerr, Suzi, A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008 (June 26, 2012). Motu Working Paper No. 12-07. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2093757 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2093757

Alex Olssen

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

Wei Zhang

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

David Evison

University of Canterbury ( email )

Ilam Road
Christchurch 8140
New Zealand

Suzi Kerr (Contact Author)

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand
+64 4 383 4250 (Phone)
+64 4 383 4270 (Fax)

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