The Economic Dimension of Turkey’s EU Membership: A Stock-Taking Exercise at the Start of Accession Negotiations
In Turkey and the EU: Internal Dynamics and External Challenges (edited by Joseph S Jospeh), New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006, pp. 16-41
31 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2012 Last revised: 2 Jul 2012
Date Written: 2006
Abstract
The public debate on Turkey’s EU membership has tended to focus on political issues. However, economic implications of Turkey’s membership are no less significant – both for the EU and for Turkey. Therefore, we aim to disentangle the costs and benefits associated with Turkey’s EU membership. We begin with a brief review of the conventional and non-conventional literature on the costs and benefits of joining a regional bloc. With this theoretical framework in mind, we examine the impact of EU membership on economic performance in Turkey. Then, we examine the impacts of Turkish accession on EU budget and Turkish migration in the EU. The evidence suggests that there is a correlation between the magnitudes of long-term benefits and short-term adjustment costs. While Turkey stands to experience significant long-term benefits and short-run adjustment costs; the EU stands to experience smaller long-term benefits as well as smaller short-run adjustment costs. We conclude by indicating that accession is highly likely to be a positive-sum choice for both Turkey and the EU, but we also call for further research on the implications of Turkey’s accession.
Keywords: integration, economic growth, convergence, migration, EU enlargement
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