Carbon Leakage Versus Policy Diffusion: The Perils and Promise of Subglobal Climate Action

Abstract

Climate change is a global problem that will ultimately require a concerted global response. Policy analysts are divided about whether individual jurisdictions and groups of jurisdictions should take the initiative in the meantime. I argue in favor of subglobal efforts, both for their direct effects on emissions and their role as steps toward global cooperation. I conclude that leakage is unlikely to pose a severe threat to well-designed subglobal mitigation efforts. Moreover, mitigation efforts in one set of jurisdictions seem more likely to increase rather than decrease the likelihood of mitigation elsewhere. By building confidence among the key actors, subglobal actions can help pave the way for broader international cooperation.