Model Comparisons Using Tournaments: Likes, 'Dislikes', and Challenges

Psychological Methods (Forthcoming)

Posted: 12 Aug 2012 Last revised: 20 Aug 2013

See all articles by Leonidas Spiliopoulos

Leonidas Spiliopoulos

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Human Development

Andreas Ortmann

UNSW Australia Business School, School of Economics

Date Written: July 11, 2012

Abstract

We examine the value added of tournaments that compare the predictive power of behavioral models. The advantages and disadvantages of this particular method have not been systematically discussed in the literature; here we aspire to do so. We conclude that tournaments are a useful addition to our arsenal of methods and a significant step forward in the study of the predictive power of behavioral models. Such tournaments are not without limitations though and we identify, and illustrate, current limitations, propose solutions to overcome some of them, and identify a research agenda to address the remaining.

Keywords: prediction tournaments, model comparisons, adaptive behavior, heuristics, bounded rationality, ecological rationality

JEL Classification: B40, C44, C52, C70, C90

Suggested Citation

Spiliopoulos, Leonidas and Ortmann, Andreas, Model Comparisons Using Tournaments: Likes, 'Dislikes', and Challenges (July 11, 2012). Psychological Methods (Forthcoming), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2103712 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2103712

Leonidas Spiliopoulos (Contact Author)

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Human Development ( email )

Lentzeallee 94
D-14195 Berlin, 14195
Germany

Andreas Ortmann

UNSW Australia Business School, School of Economics ( email )

High Street
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

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