Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2009

31 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2012

See all articles by Ivan Savin

Ivan Savin

Ural Federal University; Autonomous University of Barcelona

Peter Winker

University of Giessen - Department of Economics

Date Written: 2009

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to "high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.

Keywords: comparative advantage, competitive advantage, economy in transition, Balassa index, Lafay index

Suggested Citation

Savin, Ivan and Winker, Peter, Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession (2009). Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2104421

Ivan Savin (Contact Author)

Ural Federal University ( email )

Yekaterinburg
Russia

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Peter Winker

University of Giessen - Department of Economics ( email )

Licher Str. 62
D-35394 Giessen, DE
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/

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