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Does Poor Economic Performance Explains the End of Dominant-Party Regimes?

33 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2012 Last revised: 2 Nov 2013

Sebastian Garrido de Sierra

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Political Science

Date Written: October 31, 2013

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the survival chances of a dominant-party regime are affected by its economic performance. I test this relationship using two economic datasets and three different operationalizations of economic performance that aim to capture short- and mid-term trends, as well as drastic variations with respect to the average growth of the previous years. In contrast to previous studies, the evidence used in this paper (it covers more than 65 dominant-party regimes during the period 1950-2009) strongly suggest that these type of autocracies have very good chances to stay in power even after experiencing sustained periods of bad economic results. For instance, even when a dominant-party regime experiences an average economic growth of -3% over a five-years period (a terrible economic situation registered in less than 6% of the observations), its chances of ending are only 2.6%.

Keywords: Single-Party Regimes, Dominant-Party Regimes, Regime Transition

Suggested Citation

Garrido de Sierra, Sebastian, Does Poor Economic Performance Explains the End of Dominant-Party Regimes? (October 31, 2013). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2104539

Sebastian Garrido de Sierra (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Political Science ( email )

Los Angeles, CA
United States

HOME PAGE: http://segasi.bol.ucla.edu/

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