Crisis, Order, and Outcome

70 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2012 Last revised: 30 Aug 2012

See all articles by Gretchen Casper

Gretchen Casper

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Matthew Charles Wilson

West Virginia University - Department of Political Science

Date Written: August 26, 2012


What influences the order in which bargaining between actors occurs? Does the order of bargaining influence the outcome of the crises? In this paper, we consider the effect of actors' behavior in 47 domestic crises to address whether specfic factors are associated with different patterns of bargaining and, furthermore, whether these patterns are associated with specific outcomes of the crises. We account for order by using Sequence Analysis, which treats crises as sequences of events and quantifies the similarity between crisis sequences. We argue that two factors -- the opportunity to negotiate and the type of crisis -- influence the pattern of bargaining across the crises. Furthermore, the order of bargaining has an effect on the outcome of the crises, as measured by subsequent actions and changes in the competitiveness of participation.

Keywords: bargaining, order, democracy, sequence, cooperation

Suggested Citation

Casper, Gretchen and Wilson, Matthew Charles, Crisis, Order, and Outcome (August 26, 2012). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN:

Gretchen Casper (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Matthew Charles Wilson

West Virginia University - Department of Political Science ( email )

PO Box 6025
Morgantown, WV 26506
United States

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