Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

16 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2012

See all articles by Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER)

William Farmer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2012

Abstract

Due to their reliance on rain‐fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low‐income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy‐wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no‐climate‐change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

Suggested Citation

Arndt, Channing and Farmer, William and Strzepek, Kenneth and Thurlow, James, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania (August 2012). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 16, Issue 3, pp. 378-393, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2105884 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00669.x

Channing Arndt (Contact Author)

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6 B
Helsinki, FI‐00160
Finland

William Farmer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6B
Helsinki, FIN-00160
Finland

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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