A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

14 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2012

See all articles by Sherman Robinson

Sherman Robinson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Dirk Willenbockel

University of Sussex - Institute of Development Studies

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: August 2012

Abstract

This study links a multisectoral, regionalized, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Ethiopia with a system country‐specific hydrology, crop, road, and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change scenarios from global circulation models (GCMs) to 2050. In the absence of externally funded, policy‐driven adaptation investments, Ethiopia's GDP in 2050 will be up to 10% below the counterfactual no climate change (historical climate) baseline. Suitably designed adaptation investments could restore aggregate welfare to baseline levels at a cost that is substantially lower than the welfare losses as a result of climate change. Such investments, even if funded from domestic resources, have benefits that greatly exceed their costs, and are largely consistent with Ethiopia's long‐run development strategy.

Suggested Citation

Robinson, Sherman and Willenbockel, Dirk and Strzepek, Kenneth, A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia (August 2012). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 16, Issue 3, pp. 489-502, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2105891 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00676.x

Sherman Robinson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Dirk Willenbockel

University of Sussex - Institute of Development Studies ( email )

Brighton
Falmer, Brighton, East Sussex BN1 9RE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.ids.ac.uk

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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