Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest

66 Pages Posted: 15 Jul 2012 Last revised: 7 Aug 2014

See all articles by Marc F. Bellemare

Marc F. Bellemare

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Applied Economics

Date Written: August 3, 2012

Abstract

Can food prices cause social unrest? Throughout history, riots have frequently broken out, ostensibly as a consequence of high food prices. Using monthly data at the international level, this paper studies the impact of food prices – both food price levels volatility – on social unrest. Because food prices and social unrest are jointly determined, data on natural disasters are used to identify the causal relationship flowing from food price levels to social unrest. Results indicate that during the period 1990-2011, food price increases have led to increases in social unrest whereas food price volatility has not been associated with increases in social unrest. These results are robust to alternative definitions of social unrest, to using real or nominal prices, to using commodity-specific price indices instead of aggregated price indices, to alternative definitions of the instrumental variable, to alternative definitions of volatility, and to controlling for non-food-related social unrest.

Keywords: Food Prices, Price Volatility, Food Riots, Social unrest

Suggested Citation

Bellemare, Marc F., Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest (August 3, 2012). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2107132

Marc F. Bellemare (Contact Author)

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

MN
United States

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