Campaign Activation in German Elections: Evidence from 2005 and 2009

Abstract

This paper investigates the activation of electoral “fundamentals” in German Bundestag campaigns with evidence from 2005 and 2009. We show that the economy, party identification, and ideology are liable to activation but not in the same ways and not necessarily at the same time. Rather, activation is conditional on context and was altogether greater in the conventionally partisan election of 2005 than in 2009, when party differences were muted. The mechanisms of activation are mixed, with self-persuasion being at least as important as priming.

Keywords: German elections, campaigns, priming, learning, rolling cross-section survey, panel survey