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The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote

18 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2012 Last revised: 4 Sep 2012

Robert S. Erikson

Columbia University - Department of Political Science

Christopher Wlezien

University of Texas at Austin

Date Written: 2012

Abstract

This paper discusses ways of predicting presidential elections from the economy and trial heat polls. A prediction is offered based on trial heat polls and the cumulative leading economic indicators as of the first quarter of 2012.

Keywords: prediction, voting, economy, elections

Suggested Citation

Erikson, Robert S. and Wlezien, Christopher, The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote (2012). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2110791

Robert S. Erikson (Contact Author)

Columbia University - Department of Political Science ( email )

MC3320
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New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-0036 (Phone)

Christopher Wlezien

University of Texas at Austin ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

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