18 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2012 Last revised: 4 Sep 2012
Date Written: 2012
This paper discusses ways of predicting presidential elections from the economy and trial heat polls. A prediction is offered based on trial heat polls and the cumulative leading economic indicators as of the first quarter of 2012.
Keywords: prediction, voting, economy, elections
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Erikson, Robert S. and Wlezien, Christopher, The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote (2012). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2110791