Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets

20 Pages Posted: 27 Jul 2012 Last revised: 13 May 2014

See all articles by Robert N. McCauley

Robert N. McCauley

University of Oxford - Oxford Centre for Global History; Boston University, Global Development Policy Center

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 1, 2012

Abstract

This paper describes the international flow of funds associated with calm and volatile global equity markets. During calm periods, portfolio investment by real money and leveraged investors in advanced countries flows into emerging markets. When central banks in the receiving countries resist exchange rate appreciation and buy dollars against domestic currency, they end up investing in medium-term bonds in reserve currencies. In the process they fund themselves (or "sterilise" the expansion of local bank reserves) by issuing safe assets in domestic currency to domestic investors. Thus, calm periods, marked by leveraged investing in emerging markets, lead to an asymmetric asset swap (risky emerging market assets against safe reserve currency assets) and leveraging up by emerging market central banks. In declining and volatile global equity markets, these flows reverse, and, contrary to some claims, emerging market central banks draw down reserves substantially. In effect emerging market central banks then release safe assets from their reserves, supplying safe havens to global investors.

Keywords: Capital flows, safe assets, international flow of funds, VIX, global liquidity

JEL Classification: E58, F3, G15

Suggested Citation

McCauley, Robert N. and McCauley, Robert N., Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets (July 1, 2012). BIS Working Paper No. 382, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2117812

Robert N. McCauley (Contact Author)

Boston University, Global Development Policy Center ( email )

67 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
United States

University of Oxford - Oxford Centre for Global History ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

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