Conservative Vote Probabilities: An Easier Method for the Analysis of Roll Call Data

29 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2012 Last revised: 25 Sep 2012

See all articles by Anthony Fowler

Anthony Fowler

University of Chicago - Harris Public Policy

Andrew Hall

Stanford University

Date Written: September 24, 2012

Abstract

We propose a new roll-call scaling method based on OLS which is easier to implement and understand than previous methods and also produces directly interpretable estimates. This measure, Conservative Vote Probability (CVP), indicates the probability that an individual legislator votes “conservatively” relative to the median legislator. CVP is a flexible non-parametric statistical technique that requires no complicated assumptions but still produces legislator scalings that correlate with previous roll call methods at extremely high levels. In this paper we introduce the methodology behind CVP and offer several substantive examples to demonstrate its efficacy as an easier, more accessible alternative to previous roll call methods.

Suggested Citation

Fowler, Anthony and Hall, Andrew, Conservative Vote Probabilities: An Easier Method for the Analysis of Roll Call Data (September 24, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2120720 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2120720

Anthony Fowler

University of Chicago - Harris Public Policy ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Andrew Hall (Contact Author)

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
111
Abstract Views
656
rank
246,811
PlumX Metrics