Long Term Consequences of Election Results

British Journal of Political Science, 2015

22 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2012 Last revised: 19 Feb 2016

See all articles by Anthony Fowler

Anthony Fowler

University of Chicago - Harris Public Policy

Andrew Hall

Stanford University

Date Written: 2015

Abstract

Voters in U.S. elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two phenomena? Combining electoral and legislative roll-call data in a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, we assess the long-term consequences of election results for representation. Across the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, and state legislatures, the effects of “coin-flip” elections persist for at least a decade in all settings and as much as three decades in some settings. Further results suggest that elected officials do not adapt their roll-call voting to their districts’ preferences over time, and voters do not systematically respond by replacing incumbents.

Suggested Citation

Fowler, Anthony and Hall, Andrew, Long Term Consequences of Election Results (2015). British Journal of Political Science, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2120745 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2120745

Anthony Fowler

University of Chicago - Harris Public Policy ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Andrew Hall (Contact Author)

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

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