Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

34 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2012

See all articles by Julie Rozenberg

Julie Rozenberg

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France

Celine Guivarch

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France; Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (ENPC); Université Paris Est

Robert Lempert

RAND Corporation - Santa Monica CA Offices; Rand Graduate School

S. Hallegatte

World Bank

Date Written: August 3, 2012

Abstract

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

Keywords: Socio-Economic Scenarios, Climate Policy, Mitigation, Adaptation, Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, Scenario Elicitation Methodology

JEL Classification: Q42, Q48, D72, O38

Suggested Citation

Rozenberg, Julie and Guivarch, Céline and Lempert, Robert and Hallegatte, Stephane, Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation (August 3, 2012). FEEM Working Paper No. 52.2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2123097 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2123097

Julie Rozenberg (Contact Author)

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France ( email )

Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F94736 Nogent sur Marne Cedex
France

Céline Guivarch

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France ( email )

Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F94736 Nogent sur Marne Cedex
France
+33 143947320 (Phone)

Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (ENPC) ( email )

28, rue des Saints-Peres
75343 Paris Cedex 07
France

Université Paris Est ( email )

Batiment Bois de l'Etang
5 rue Galilee
Champs sur Marne, 77420
France

Robert Lempert

RAND Corporation - Santa Monica CA Offices ( email )

P.O. Box 2138
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Rand Graduate School

Santa Monica, CA 90407
United States

Stephane Hallegatte

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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