The Economic Costs of the German Participation in the Afghanistan War

Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 48, No. 6, pp. 793-805, 2011

Posted: 6 Aug 2012

See all articles by Tilman Brück

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops; ISDC - International Security and Development Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Olaf J. de Groot

DIW Berlin; Bocconi University

Friedrich Schneider

Johannes Kepler University Linz - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: November 1, 2011

Abstract

In this article, we estimate the total costs of the German participation in the Afghanistan war, both past and future. This is a hugely complex and uncertain calculation, which depends on several important assumptions. These assumptions pertain to the different cost channels and the shares of these channels that can be attributed to the German participation in the war. By calculating the costs of the German participation, we provide a framework for other researchers to do the same with respect to other countries. The article can function as a road map for researchers focusing on this topic. In the end we find that, in the most realistic of several possible scenarios regarding the duration and intensity of the German participation in the war in Afghanistan, the German share of the net present value of the total costs of the war ranges from 26 billion Euro to 47 billion Euro. This large range reflects the uncertainties with which the costs must be estimated. On an annual basis, we estimate that the German participation in the war costs between 2.5 and 3 billion Euro. This contrasts with the official war budget, which is little over 1 billion Euro for 2010, showing that governments may not adequately represent the costs of military action.

Keywords: Afghanistan, costs of conflict, war, military budget

Suggested Citation

Brück, Tilman and de Groot, Olaf J. and Schneider, Friedrich G., The Economic Costs of the German Participation in the Afghanistan War (November 1, 2011). Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 48, No. 6, pp. 793-805, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2124941

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops ( email )

Theodor-Echtermeyer-Str. 1
Grossbeeren, 14979
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.igzev.de

ISDC - International Security and Development Center ( email )

Friedrichstr. 88
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.isd-center.org

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Olaf J. De Groot (Contact Author)

DIW Berlin ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Friedrich G. Schneider

Johannes Kepler University Linz - Department of Economics ( email )

Altenbergerstrasse 69
A-4040 Linz, 4040
Austria
+43 732 2468 8210 (Phone)
+43 732 2468 8208 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
265
PlumX Metrics