Learning from the Future – Modeling Scenarios Based on Normativity, Performativity and Transparency
XXIII ISPIM conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 2012
12 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2012
Date Written: June 18, 2012
The ability to deal with and learn in the face of uncertainty is a key capability of organizations in dynamic environments. Scenarios based on normativity, performativity and transparency foster organisational learning, allow preparing for alternative developments and working out preferred options. This paper builds on previous research on the analysis respectively modeling of future scenarios in the telecommunication industry. We introduce and exemplify a qualitative method of collaborative modeling. It combines the development of a normative vision with a grounded innovation approach to generate, aggregate and qualify insights in order to develop exploratory scenarios based on key uncertainty factors. At least as important as the resulting scenarios is the learning experience of the participants. We elaborate upon the process oriented implications and tools of scenario modeling as a learning activity.
Keywords: Future scenarios, Innovation Strategy, Organizational Learning, Access Business
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