Download This PaperThe Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth
21 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2012
Date Written: 1998
Abstract
The interest rate term spread contains useful information for predicting both economic activity and the probability of recessions. Further, the spread contains information not already included in past economic growth and past monetary policy. Nevertheless, the spread's forecasting performance, while still useful, has shown a noticeable deterioration in recent years.
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