Trend Following, Risk Parity and Momentum in Commodity Futures

34 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2012 Last revised: 17 Jan 2013

See all articles by Steve Thomas

Steve Thomas

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School

Andrew Clare

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School

James Seaton

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School

Peter N. Smith

University of York - Department of Economics and Related Studies; Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)

Date Written: August 8, 2012

Abstract

We show that combining momentum and trend following strategies for individual commodity futures can lead to portfolios which offer attractive risk adjusted returns which are superior to simple momentum strategies; when we expose these returns to a wide array of sources of systematic risk we find that robust alpha survives. Experimenting with risk parity portfolio weightings has limited impact on our results though in particular is beneficial to long-short strategies; the marginal impact of applying trend following methods far outweighs momentum and risk parity adjustments in terms of risk-adjusted returns and limiting downside risk.Overall this leads to an attractive strategy for investing in commodity futures and emphasises the importance of trend following as an investment strategy in the commodity futures context.

Suggested Citation

Thomas, Stephen H. and Clare, Andrew D. and Seaton, James and Smith, Peter N., Trend Following, Risk Parity and Momentum in Commodity Futures (August 8, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2126813 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2126813

Stephen H. Thomas (Contact Author)

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom
+44 (0) 20 7040 5271 (Phone)
+44 (0) 20 7040 8881 (Fax)

Andrew D. Clare

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

James Seaton

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

Peter N. Smith

University of York - Department of Economics and Related Studies ( email )

Heslington
York 010 5DD
United Kingdom
+44 1904 433 765 (Phone)
+44 1904 433 759 (Fax)

Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) ( email )

ANU College of Business and Economics
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

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