Structural Change and the Environment

13 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2012

See all articles by Jun Lan

Jun Lan

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Manfred Lenzen

The University of Sydney - Center for Integrated Sustainability Analysis (ISA)

Erik Dietzenbacher

University of Groningen - Department of Economics

Daniel D. Moran

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Keiichiro Kanemoto

Shinshu University

Joy Murray

The University of Sydney

Arne Geschke

The University of Sydney - Center for Integrated Sustainability Analysis (ISA)

Date Written: August 2012

Abstract

We use the input‐output tables in constant prices extended with carbon dioxide (CO) emissions for examining the development of China, a country undergoing rapid growth. We undertake this empirical analysis in terms of a new and therefore rarely applied methodology: instead of average coefficients characterizing the average (old) technology operating throughout a particular reporting year, we calculate marginal coefficients -- in monetary and CO terms -- that capture the additional (new) technology installed after that year. Marginal coefficients are increasingly recommended in the literature for applications such as consequential life cycle assessment, where they are supposed to lead to more realistic results, especially in prospective analyses. Our work provides a first, broad overview about the magnitude and distribution of these coefficients across recent years in China's rapidly growing economy for which marginal coefficients could be expected to differ greatly from average coefficients. We find that (1) marginal coefficients can differ substantially from average coefficients, thus lending support to the need expressed in the literature for coining consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) and similar prospective assessment in marginal rather than average terms; (2) marginal CO emissions coefficients differ more from their average counterparts than marginal monetary coefficients, showing that for China, within‐sector technological solutions to emissions abatement have played a more important role than the reorganization of supply structures; and (3) there exists considerable scatter and variation of marginal coefficients across years, which to a certain extent precludes the identification of clear temporal and sectoral trends.

Keywords: average coefficient, carbon dioxide emissions, economic input‐output analysis, industrial ecology, life cycle assessment, marginal coefficient

Suggested Citation

Lan, Jun and Lenzen, Manfred and Dietzenbacher, Erik and Moran, Daniel D. and Kanemoto, Keiichiro and Murray, Joy and Geschke, Arne, Structural Change and the Environment (August 2012). Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 16, Issue 4, pp. 623-635, 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2131053 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00518.x

Jun Lan (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Manfred Lenzen

The University of Sydney - Center for Integrated Sustainability Analysis (ISA)

School of Physics, A28
The University of Sydney
Sydney, NSW 2006
Australia

Erik Dietzenbacher

University of Groningen - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AV Groningen
Netherlands
+31 (0)50 3633813 (Phone)

Daniel D. Moran

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) ( email )

Høgskoleringen
Trondheim NO-7491, 7491
Norway

Keiichiro Kanemoto

Shinshu University ( email )

Nagano, 390-8621
Japan

Joy Murray

The University of Sydney

Arne Geschke

The University of Sydney - Center for Integrated Sustainability Analysis (ISA)

School of Physics, A28
The University of Sydney
Sydney, NSW 2006
Australia

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