Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment

Abstract

In the election for President of the United States, the Electoral College is the body whose members vote for an elect the President directly. Each state sends a number of delegates equal to its total number of representatives and senators in Congress; all but two states (Nebraska and Maine) assign electors pledged to the candidate that wins the state’s plurality vote. We investigate the effect on presidential elections if states were to assign their electoral votes according to results in each congressional district, and conclude that the current electoral college and direct popular vote are both substantially fairer compared to those alternatives where states would have divided their electoral votes by congressional district.

Keywords: presidential election, electoral college, congressional district