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Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Severity and Evolution of Civil Conflict

39 Pages Posted: 25 Aug 2012 Last revised: 11 Aug 2013

Stephen Chaudoin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Zachary Peskowitz

Independent

Christopher Stanton

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE); University of Utah - Department of Finance

Date Written: August 9, 2013

Abstract

We assess risk factors affecting the severity and dynamics of civil wars, departing from analyses focused primarily on static models of the effect of income on the extensive margin of conflict. Civil conflicts are shown to be persistent, but rarely do they become more severe in response to past fighting. Substantial heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion is documented: severe fighting lasts longest in poor countries and ethnically fractionalized countries.

JEL Classification: D74, N40, C23

Suggested Citation

Chaudoin, Stephen and Peskowitz, Zachary and Stanton, Christopher, Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Severity and Evolution of Civil Conflict (August 9, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2135780 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2135780

Stephen Chaudoin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

702 S. Wright Street
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

Zachary Peskowitz

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Christopher Stanton (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

University of Utah - Department of Finance ( email )

David Eccles School of Business
Salt Lake City, UT 84112
United States

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