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The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

54 Pages Posted: 25 Aug 2012  

Nir Jaimovich

Duke University

Henry Siu

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Department of Economics

Date Written: August 2012

Abstract

Job polarization refers to the recent shrinking concentration of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in middle-skill occupations occurs in economic downturns; in this sense, job polarization has an important cyclical component. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate are accounted for by jobless recoveries in the middle-skill occupations that are disappearing.

Suggested Citation

Jaimovich, Nir and Siu, Henry, The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries (August 2012). NBER Working Paper No. w18334. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2136004

Nir Jaimovich (Contact Author)

Duke University ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

Henry Siu

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Department of Economics ( email )

997-1873 East Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1
Canada

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