The Determinants of VAT Introduction: A Spatial Duration Analysis

Abstract

The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. This specification relies highly on a predeterminate covariance structure of the errors. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but it can also be present in the baseline hazards and the dependent variables. A new spatial survival model with these three possible spatial correlation structures is explored and used to investigate the determinants of value-added tax implementation in 92 countries over the period 1970–2008 using the proposed model. The estimation results suggest the presence of a significant copycat effect among neighboring countries for both contiguity and distance weight matrices.

Keywords: Spatial duration, MCMC, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Value-Added Tax

JEL Classification: C11, C23, C41, H20, H70