Democratization and Civil War

28 Pages Posted: 29 Aug 2012 Last revised: 20 Jul 2013

See all articles by Laura Armey

Laura Armey

Naval Postgraduate School

Robert Martin McNab

Naval Postgraduate School

Date Written: June 4, 2013


This paper examines the impact of civil war on democracy. Drawing from the literature on war and democracy, we investigate the impact of prolonged violence, war termination, rebel victory, and international intervention on democratization. Using an unbalanced panel data set of 96 countries covering a 34-year period, our analysis suggests that civil war lowers democratization in the succeeding period. Our findings suggest that United Nations intervention increases democratization, as do wars ending in stalemates. However, wars ending in rebel victories seem to reduce democracy. These findings appear robust to conditioning, different instrument sets, and the measurement of democracy.

Keywords: Civil War, Democracy, Conflict, Democratization, Outcomes of War

JEL Classification: H56, N40, O11

Suggested Citation

Armey, Laura and McNab, Robert Martin, Democratization and Civil War (June 4, 2013). Available at SSRN: or

Laura Armey (Contact Author)

Naval Postgraduate School ( email )

United States

Robert Martin McNab

Naval Postgraduate School ( email )

1522 Cunningham Road
DRMI Code 64Mb
Monterey, CA 93943-5201
United States
831-656-3132 (Phone)
831-656-2139 (Fax)


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